🔗 Share this article A Prediction Market User Earned $436,000 on Wagers Predicting Venezuela's Political Shift. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. A bettor earned a substantial sum by predicting the removal of the Venezuelan leader just before it was publicly declared, raising questions about potential gains made from non-public details of the event. Sudden Shift in Predictions Bets placed on the crypto-platform, a blockchain-based service, that Nicolás Maduro would be removed from office by the month's conclusion surged in the period preceding former President Trump declared on Saturday that Maduro had been taken into custody. One account, which registered on the site in December and made four bets, all on Venezuela, made more than $436,000 from a initial bet of over $32,000. Who placed the bet is a mystery. This unidentified trader had only a blockchain identifier for identification. Probability Spikes Before News Break Trading information shows that users assessed the probability of a political change at just a low 6.5 percent in the late afternoon of the prior Friday. However the market's assessment had increased to 11% by the end of the day and spiked dramatically in the early hours of the next day, indicating a rapid movement in positions right before the social media post was made. "This particular bet has all the signs of a transaction based on non-public details," commented a financial reform advocate. Several of other individuals also made large payouts from bets on the same outcome. Legal Questions Grows Some lawmakers are starting to take note. Proposed legislation introduced on the start of the week aims to prohibit federal workers from participating on forecasting platforms if they have "confidential government knowledge" related to a market. Market Background Event-driven betting sites have surged in popularity in recent years, with participants able to wager on everything from elections to current affairs. Prediction markets encountered regulatory challenges under the last presidential term. However it has found a more favorable environment during the present political climate. Trading on insider information is a crime in the traditional financial markets, but there are more ambiguous rules in the event betting arena. A company executive for a competing service said their site "explicitly prohibits such activities of any form."