A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
