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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward formula. It often functions as a form of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your team in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who engineered the biggest turnaround wins the award. In practice, it sparks an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're truly honoring excellent coaching or simply the biggest surprise.

Yet this year's competition is distinctly different. The group of nominees is unusually deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with recent division winners falling away and recent also-rans ascending collectively. In an ordinary season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in this wild and fun year, he's facing five other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his rare talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to spin big plays out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But this isn't a normal year!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained success. But he comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has engineered a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the off-field aspects, which was not a guarantee following his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect staff cocktail of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

After an early hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason setback had the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still